Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Trevor StoryBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lucas GiolitoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Twins- Brooks LeeBatting3-4, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Pierson OhlPitching3.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee homered to right (360 feet), Jeffers scored.8–5
- 9Abreu doubled to right, Story scored.8–3
- 9Story doubled to right, Bregman scored.7–3
- 7Lee homered to center (415 feet), Jeffers scored.6–3
- 6Rafaela hit sacrifice fly to center, Narváez scored.6–1
- 5Lee singled to center, Bader scored, Lee safe at second, Vázquez safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Rafaela.5–1
- 5Duran homered to center (446 feet).5–0
- 3Story homered to left center (404 feet), Bregman scored.4–0
- 3Bregman doubled to left, Anthony scored on fielding error by left fielder Castro.2–0
- 3Anthony singled to center, Rafaela scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Red Sox 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BOS 54%
- ML BOS -130 / MIN +110
- Pre-line forecast
- BOS 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BOS 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- BOS: Elo 50.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- BOS -119
- MIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.4 – 4.1 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1488 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +1 | BOS: Lucas Giolito: team allows 0.14 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pierson Ohl (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +4 Elo | BOS 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BOS 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 18th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–30 | Road vs home | 30–2214th of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 13th of 301514 | Elo rating | 148823rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–52 | 52–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 30–16 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 51–57 | 46–60 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–9 MIN in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 17.