Boston Red Sox at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Red Sox- Alex BregmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Richard FittsPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Twins- DaShawn Keirsey Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching4.2 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee singled to left, Castro scored and Gasper scored, Correa to second.4–5
- 9Anthony singled to center, Hamilton scored.4–3
- 6Vázquez hit sacrifice fly to center, Lewis scored.3–3
- 5Bregman homered to center (418 feet), Toro scored and Anthony scored.3–2
- 3Keirsey Jr. homered to left center (376 feet), Vázquez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 50%
- ML BOS -110 / MIN -110
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.2 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -100
- BOS -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 4.8 – 4.8 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | +5 | BOS: Richard Fitts: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BOS +2 Elo | BOS 50.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 51.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BOS | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.5 | Margin | −0.220th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 21st of 3023–29 | Road vs home | 29–2215th of 30 |
| 12th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149820th of 30 |
| 12th of 301515 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–52 | 52–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–36 | 28–35 |
| Underdog | 29–16 | 24–17 |
| Overs–unders | 51–56 | 46–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 8–8 MIN in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.