Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Tyler FreemanBatting1-4
- Kyle FreelandPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Guardians- David FryBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kolby AllardPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Santana doubled to right, Ramírez scored, Manzardo to third.0–5
- 8Manzardo singled to center, Kwan scored, Ramírez to third.0–4
- 4Rocchio hit sacrifice fly to left, Fry scored.0–3
- 1Fry homered to left (383 feet), Ramírez scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 61%
- ML COL +145 / CLE -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- +7.1 pts
- CLE: Elo 68.0%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- CLE -156
- COL +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 4.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Kolby Allard: team allows 0.10 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +131 Elo | CLE 68.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 64.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.926th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.2 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 30th of 3014–41 | Road vs home | 26–2621st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 30th of 301388 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–54 | 52–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 51–50 | 35–26 |
| Overs–unders | 46–61 | 50–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 5–3 CLE in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.