Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Warming BernabelBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson scored on Hill wild pitch.1–5
- 8Henderson scored on Hill wild pitch.1–5
- 3O'Neill homered to left (433 feet), Henderson scored.1–4
- 2Carlson singled to left, Mullins scored and Mayo scored, Carlson to second.1–2
- 2Bernabel homered to left (385 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 64%
- ML COL +170 / BAL -205
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- BAL: Elo 64.7%, market 64.5%
- Fair odds
- BAL -181
- COL +181 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 4.1 – 5.4 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1389 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.15 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +105 Elo | BAL 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 63.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 64.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.5 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–39 | Road vs home | 23–2625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149821st of 30 |
| 30th of 301389 | Elo rating | 148523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–52 | 49–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 17–29 |
| Underdog | 50–48 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 44–60 | 47–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–5 BAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.