Colorado Rockies at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Thairo EstradaBatting1-3
- Antonio SenzatelaPitching4.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Tyler O'NeillBatting2-2, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Trevor RogersPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 8Jackson homered to center (401 feet).0–18
- 7Mayo doubled to right, Henderson scored and Westburg scored.0–17
- 7Henderson doubled to right, Stallings scored and Holliday scored, Westburg to third.0–15
- 7Westburg singled to left, Carlson scored, Holliday to second, Stallings to third.0–13
- 7Stallings singled to left, Cowser scored, Carlson to second.0–12
- 7Carlson grounded into fielder's choice to second, Mayo scored, O'Neill out at second, Cowser to third.0–11
- 7O'Neill singled to left, O'Hearn scored, Cowser to second, Mayo to third.0–10
- 7O'Hearn singled to right, Henderson scored.0–9
- 6O'Neill scored, Stallings safe at first, Stallings to second, Mullins to third on throwing error by pitcher Rolison.0–8
- 6Mullins reached on infield single to pitcher, Cowser scored on throwing error by pitcher Rolison, Mullins to second, O'Neill to third.0–7
- 4Mullins homered to right (350 feet), Laureano scored and O'Neill scored.0–6
- 2O'Neill homered to center (417 feet), Cowser scored.0–3
- 1O'Hearn singled to left, Westburg scored, Henderson to second.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 69%
- ML COL +210 / BAL -255
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- BAL: Elo 65.1%, market 69.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -223
- COL +223 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.9 – 5.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1392 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +3 | COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +108 Elo | BAL 65.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | BAL 66.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 69.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 30th of 306.0 | Runs allowed | 5.127th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.4 | Margin | −1.027th of 30 |
| 9th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 2–829th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–38 | Road vs home | 22–2625th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 30th of 301392 | Elo rating | 148223rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–51 | 48–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–29 |
| Underdog | 50–47 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60 | 46–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 3–4 BAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.