Colorado Rockies at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Guardians- Bo NaylorBatting1-1, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones singled to right, Schneemann scored.8–6
- 9Goodman doubled to center, Freeman scored.8–5
- 9Moniak hit sacrifice fly to center, Farmer scored.7–5
- 9Freeman singled to right, Doyle scored, Farmer to third.6–5
- 9Doyle hit sacrifice bunt, Bernabel scored on error, Doyle safe at second on throwing error by pitcher Smith.5–5
- 8Goodman homered to left center (401 feet).4–5
- 7Schneemann singled to center, Martínez scored, Santana to second, Ramírez to third.3–5
- 7Santana walked, Kwan scored, Ramírez to second, Martínez to third.3–4
- 7Naylor homered to right center (406 feet), Jones scored and Rocchio scored.3–3
- 6Bernabel homered to left (386 feet).3–0
- 5Freeman singled to left, Farmer scored, Arcia to second, Arcia safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Kwan.2–0
- 3Freeman hit sacrifice fly to right, Farmer scored, Arcia to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 71%
- ML COL +230 / CLE -285
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 69.5%, market 71.0%
- Fair odds
- CLE -244
- COL +244 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- COL 3.3 – 5.2 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | COL | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1388 | 1496 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +6 | COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +143 Elo | CLE 69.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 67.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 71.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| COL | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 3.826th of 30 |
| 30th of 306.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−2.6 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 30th of 3013–40 | Road vs home | 25–2521st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 30th of 301388 | Elo rating | 149620th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  COL |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–53 | 51–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 2–4 | 16–28 |
| Underdog | 50–49 | 35–26 |
| Overs–unders | 44–61 | 48–57 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
COL 4–2 CLE in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.