Cleveland Guardians at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Guardians- Gabriel AriasBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Slade CecconiPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting4-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 10Baty singled to center, McNeil scored.7–6
- 10Arias hit sacrifice fly to right, Ramírez scored, Kayfus to third.7–5
- 10Fry bunted into fielder's choice to third, Schneemann scored on error, Fry second, Ramírez safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Baty, Ramírez safe at third on error.6–5
- 8Vientos hit sacrifice fly to center, J. Soto scored, McNeil to second, Alonso to third.5–5
- 8Alonso singled to left, Lindor scored, J. Soto to second.5–4
- 6Alonso homered to center (388 feet), Lindor scored and J. Soto scored.5–3
- 6Arias homered to center (440 feet), Fry scored and Santana scored.5–0
- 6Santana singled to right, Martínez scored, Fry to second.2–0
- 6Fry singled to right, Kwan scored, Martínez to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 64%
- ML CLE +165 / NYM -200
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 55.1%, market 63.9%
- Fair odds
- NYM -177
- CLE +177 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CLE 3.1 – 4.4 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CLE | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | −7 | CLE: Slade Cecconi: team allows 0.03 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +35 Elo | NYM 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 63.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CLE | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 12th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.08th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | +0.412th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 38–181st of 30 |
| 25th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 19th of 301497 | Elo rating | 15228th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CLE |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–58 | 52–60 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 18–32 | 31–48 |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 21–12 |
| Overs–unders | 52–59 | 49–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CLE 3–3 NYM in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.