New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Starling MarteBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Brewers- Brice TurangBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Brandon WoodruffPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Collins hit by pitch, Ortiz scored, Contreras to second, Frelick to third.2–3
- 5Turang homered to right center (424 feet), Perkins scored.2–2
- 2Marte homered to left center (418 feet).2–0
- 1J. Soto homered to right (361 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML NYM +125 / MIL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 60.0%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIL -135
- NYM +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.9 – 4.6 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1518 | 1565 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +15 | NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Brandon Woodruff: team allows 0.76 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +70 Elo | MIL 60.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 20th of 3025–31 | Road vs home | 36–204th of 30 |
| 27th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 11th of 301518 | Elo rating | 15651st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–63 | 66–48 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 30–30 |
| Underdog | 21–12 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–65 | 53–61 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–13 MIL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 19.
- Jul 3MIL 2 @ NYM 3Picked NYM 59%Hit
- Jul 2MIL 3 @ NYM 7Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jul 2MIL 7 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 52%Miss
- Oct 3NYM 4 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 53%Miss
- Oct 2NYM 3 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Hit
- Oct 1NYM 8 @ MIL 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Miss
- Sep 29NYM 5 @ MIL 0Picked NYM 57%Hit
- Sep 28NYM 0 @ MIL 6Picked MIL 50%Hit