Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Contreras singled to right, Collins scored.1–7
- 4Vaughn hit sacrifice bunt to first, Collins scored, Yelich to second.1–6
- 3Lockridge scored on throwing error by catcher Bart, Ortiz stole second.1–5
- 3Lockridge scored on throwing error by catcher Bart, Ortiz stole second.1–5
- 3Lockridge singled to right, Frelick scored.1–4
- 3Frelick singled to right, Vaughn scored, Frelick to second.1–3
- 3Yelich homered to center (395 feet).1–2
- 3Bart homered to right (356 feet).1–1
- 1Turang homered to center (406 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 62%
- ML PIT +155 / MIL -185
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 67.3%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIL -166
- PIT +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.7 – 4.8 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1470 | 1569 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −19 | −11 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.97 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +125 Elo | MIL 67.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 63.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 64.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–39 | Road vs home | 39–202nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 301506 | Opponent Elo | 149527th of 30 |
| 25th of 301470 | Elo rating | 15691st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–58 | 67–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 31–32 |
| Underdog | 49–31 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–69 | 55–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–19 MIL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 33.