Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting3-4
- Brady SingerPitching3.2 IP, 4 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Henry DavisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Davis homered to left (373 feet), Triolo scored.0–7
- 6Cruz grounded out to second, Horwitz scored, N. Gonzales to second.0–5
- 4Horwitz singled to center, Davis scored.0–4
- 1Triolo singled to center, Cruz scored and McCutchen scored, Triolo to second, Suwinski to third.0–3
- 1Reynolds homered to left center (391 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML CIN +140 / PIT -165
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 49.9%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- CIN +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 2.8 – 3.7 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1470 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +19 | CIN: Brady Singer: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.97 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +1 Elo | CIN 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.18th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 32–2717th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301509 | Elo rating | 147025th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–54 | 59–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 45–70 | 48–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 14–18 PIT in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 21 of 32.