San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Willy AdamesBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Logan WebbPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Bailey singled to right, Smith scored and Lee scored.8–1
- 5Adames homered to right (368 feet), Devers scored.6–1
- 5Devers reached on infield single to second, Ramos scored.4–1
- 4Encarnación homered to center (415 feet).3–1
- 3Reynolds singled to left, Kiner-Falefa scored, Pham to second, Horwitz to third.2–1
- 3Koss homered to left center (419 feet), Bailey scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 55%
- ML SF -135 / PIT +115
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- SF: Elo 51.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -124
- PIT +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.0 – 3.5 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −3 | SF: Logan Webb: team allows 0.19 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +10 Elo | SF 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 59.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 29th of 302–8 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 32–2515th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–68 | 59–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–49 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 48–29 |
| Overs–unders | 54–59 | 47–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–8 PIT in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 16.