Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Bradley BlalockPitching5.2 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Horwitz grounded out to first, Suwinski scored, Davis to third.9–5
- 6Beck homered to left (381 feet).8–5
- 6Goodman homered to left (451 feet).8–4
- 6Moniak homered to right (433 feet), Freeman scored.8–3
- 6Horwitz homered to right (421 feet), Suwinski scored and Triolo scored.8–1
- 4Beck singled to center, Freeman scored.5–1
- 2Horwitz homered to right (416 feet), Triolo scored.5–0
- 1Pham homered to center (446 feet), N. Gonzales scored.3–0
- 1N. Gonzales reached on infield single to third, Horwitz scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 59%
- ML PIT -160 / COL +135
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- PIT -145
- COL +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 5.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1391 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −9 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.01 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Bradley Blalock: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +71 Elo | PIT 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 61.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 61.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 6th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–39 | Road vs home | 16–3830th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Elo rating | 139130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–54 | 55–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 10–25 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 53–51 |
| Overs–unders | 45–66 | 48–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–6 COL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 14.