Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Liover PegueroBatting3-5, 3 HR, 5 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Jordan BeckBatting2-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Austin GomberPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Peguero homered to left center (390 feet).5–8
- 8Arcia homered to left center (411 feet).4–8
- 7Bernabel singled to center, Tovar scored.4–7
- 6Arcia grounded out to second, Doyle scored, Nola to third.4–6
- 6Nola doubled to first, Estrada scored, Doyle to third.4–5
- 6Doyle singled to left, Bernabel scored, Estrada to second.4–4
- 6Beck homered to right center (394 feet), Moniak scored and Tovar scored.4–3
- 5Peguero homered to left (384 feet), Triolo scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.4–0
- 1Peguero homered to left (410 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 68%
- ML PIT -240 / COL +200
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- PIT: Elo 62.1%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -212
- COL +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.1 – 4.4 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 10.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1474 | 1388 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +26 | +7 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 1.28 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Austin Gomber: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +86 Elo | PIT 62.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 66.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 65.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.5 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 29th of 3016–38 | Road vs home | 15–3830th of 30 |
| 1st of 301508 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301474 | Elo rating | 138830th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–53 | 54–55 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 10–24 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 52–51 |
| Overs–unders | 44–66 | 47–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–5 COL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 13.