Pittsburgh Pirates at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Andrew McCutchenBatting3-5, 1 HR, 5 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching3.1 IP, 3 ER, 1 K
Rockies- Warming BernabelBatting4-6, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Carson PalmquistPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 9Doyle homered to left center (406 feet), Estrada scored.16–17
- 9Estrada singled to center, Bernabel scored.16–15
- 9Bernabel tripled to left, Beck scored.16–14
- 9Goodman homered to left (425 feet).16–13
- 8Fernández homered to right center (426 feet), Doyle scored.16–12
- 6Bart hit by pitch, McCutchen scored, N. Gonzales to second, Reynolds to third.16–10
- 5Tovar hit a ground rule double, Freeman scored.15–10
- 5Freeman doubled to left, Farmer scored and Moniak scored.15–9
- 5Moniak doubled to center, Doyle scored, Farmer to third.15–7
- 5Kiner-Falefa doubled to right, Triolo scored and Bart scored.15–6
- 5Triolo singled to center, Cruz scored, Bart to second.13–6
- 4Goodman singled to left, Tovar scored.12–6
- 4Tovar doubled to left, Freeman scored.12–5
- 4McCutchen singled to left, Bart scored and Kiner-Falefa scored.12–4
- 4Horwitz grounded out to first, Pham scored, Kiner-Falefa to second, Bart to third.10–4
- 3Bernabel homered to left (380 feet), Tovar scored and Beck scored.9–4
- 1Beck singled to left, Goodman scored.9–1
- 1McCutchen homered to left (382 feet), Kiner-Falefa scored and Horwitz scored.9–0
- 1Kiner-Falefa singled to right, Pham scored.6–0
- 1Cruz homered to center (451 feet), McCutchen scored, Reynolds scored and N. Gonzales scored.5–0
- 1Reynolds singled to left, Horwitz scored, McCutchen to second.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 55%
- ML PIT -135 / COL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.5 pts
- PIT: Elo 60.8%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -124
- COL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 6.0 – 5.5 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1475 | 1387 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | −13 | PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Antonio Senzatela: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +76 Elo | PIT 60.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 59.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 59.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.4 | Runs scored | 3.629th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 6.230th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 28th of 3016–37 | Road vs home | 14–3830th of 30 |
| 1st of 301509 | Opponent Elo | 15082nd of 30 |
| 25th of 301475 | Elo rating | 138730th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–52 | 53–55 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 10–23 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 47–29 | 51–51 |
| Overs–unders | 43–66 | 46–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 8–4 COL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.