San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Heliot RamosBatting3-5
- Justin VerlanderPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Jack SuwinskiBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yohan RamirezPitching2.2 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kiner-Falefa grounded into fielder's choice to first, Suwinski scored, Davis third.4–5
- 9Bart singled to left, Canario scored, Suwinski to third.4–4
- 7Suwinski homered to right (371 feet), Peguero scored.4–3
- 5Lee tripled to right, Adames scored and Chapman scored.4–1
- 1N. Gonzales hit sacrifice fly to right, Horwitz scored.2–1
- 1Schmitt walked, Devers scored, Smith to second, Adames to third.2–0
- 1Smith singled to center, Ramos scored, Adames to second, Devers to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- SF 54%
- ML SF -130 / PIT +110
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- SF: Elo 50.7%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- SF -119
- PIT +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.4 – 4.1 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −11 | SF: Justin Verlander: team allows 0.53 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Johan Oviedo: team allows 0.55 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +5 Elo | SF 50.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.06th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 11th of 3028–30 | Road vs home | 31–2516th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301496 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–67 | 58–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 16–48 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 47–29 |
| Overs–unders | 53–59 | 46–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 8–7 PIT in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 15.