Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- TJ FriedlBatting2-4
- Andrew AbbottPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting2-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.2 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hays grounded out to third, Friedl scored.1–6
- 8Hoerner singled to left, Shaw scored.0–6
- 8Happ homered to left center (363 feet).0–5
- 7Kelly singled to left, Turner scored, Suzuki to second.0–4
- 7Swanson homered to left (382 feet).0–3
- 6Suzuki homered to left (379 feet).0–2
- 3Suzuki hit sacrifice fly to left, Hoerner scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CIN +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +13 | CIN: Andrew Abbott: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +58 Elo | CHC 58.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 53.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.22nd of 30 |
| 12th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 12th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 35–208th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150311th of 30 |
| 14th of 301511 | Elo rating | 15383rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–53 | 53–60 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 36–38 |
| Underdog | 40–18 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders | 45–69 | 61–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 19–15 CHC in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 34.