Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Gunnar HendersonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tomoyuki SuganoPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Matthew BoydPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Henderson homered to right center (416 feet), Holliday scored and Westburg scored.4–3
- 8Westburg singled to right, Cowser scored, Holliday to second.1–3
- 4Hoerner singled to right, Castro scored.0–3
- 2McGuire hit sacrifice fly to left, Castro scored.0–2
- 2Hoerner hit a ground rule double, Happ scored, Castro to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 67%
- ML BAL +195 / CHC -235
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 60.3%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -207
- BAL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.0 – 4.5 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +8 | BAL: Tomoyuki Sugano: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +72 Elo | CHC 60.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 65.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 64.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–33 | Road vs home | 34–173rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150211th of 30 |
| 21st of 301493 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 52–57 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 35–35 |
| Underdog | 34–26 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–60 | 60–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–6 CHC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.