Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Joey LoperfidoBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lazaro EstradaPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Orioles- Ramon UriasBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching6.0 IP, 3 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Holliday hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.4–16
- 8Westburg doubled to center, Cowser scored.4–15
- 8Loperfido homered to right (377 feet).4–14
- 7Urías homered to left center (407 feet).3–14
- 7Henderson homered to center (417 feet), Westburg scored and Laureano scored.3–13
- 6Cowser singled to center, Mullins scored.3–10
- 6Urías homered to center (402 feet).3–9
- 6O'Neill homered to left center (401 feet), Laureano scored and Henderson scored.3–8
- 6Henderson singled to left, Westburg scored, Laureano to third.3–5
- 4Barger homered to center (428 feet), Bichette scored.3–4
- 3Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Henderson scored.1–4
- 3Urías hit sacrifice fly to center, Laureano scored, Henderson to third.1–3
- 3Schneider reached on infield single to third, Sánchez scored on error, Schneider safe at second on throwing error by third baseman Urías.1–2
- 1Mullins hit sacrifice fly to left, Laureano scored.0–2
- 1O'Neill hit sacrifice fly to left, Westburg scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 52%
- ML TOR +100 / BAL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- BAL: Elo 48.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.7 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | 0 | TOR: Easton Lucas: team allows 0.31 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · BAL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.02 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +9 Elo | TOR 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | BAL 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 20th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.727th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 25–2622nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301524 | Elo rating | 149022nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–44 | 51–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 19–29 |
| Underdog | 39–18 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 60–47 | 48–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–21 BAL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 19 of 33.