Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching2.1 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Ramon LaureanoBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cowser homered to center (391 feet).4–11
- 5Mayo grounded out to pitcher, Cowser scored, Mullins to third.4–10
- 5Laureano homered to left center (428 feet), O'Hearn scored.4–9
- 5O'Hearn doubled to right, Rutschman scored.4–7
- 4Wagner lined out to second, Clement scored.4–6
- 3Laureano singled to center, Rutschman scored.3–6
- 3Rutschman doubled to center, Henderson scored and Westburg scored.3–5
- 3Guerrero Jr. homered to center (398 feet), Springer scored.3–3
- 3Lukes homered to right center (398 feet).1–3
- 2Mayo homered to left center (413 feet).0–3
- 2Mullins homered to right (408 feet), O'Hearn scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 50%
- ML TOR -110 / BAL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 46%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- BAL: Elo 47.1%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- BAL -100
- TOR -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.8 – 4.8 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | −2 | TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +20 Elo | TOR 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 53.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | −0.827th of 30 |
| 2nd of 308–2 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 24–2625th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149723rd of 30 |
| 7th of 301527 | Elo rating | 148723rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–43 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 18–29 |
| Underdog | 39–17 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 59–47 | 47–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–20 BAL in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 18 of 32.