Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Ernie ClementBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Jahmai JonesBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Keith singled to right, Vierling scored.11–4
- 9Pérez grounded out to second, Greene scored, Vierling to second.11–3
- 9Torkelson homered to left (372 feet).11–2
- 8Lukes homered to right (420 feet), Wagner scored.11–1
- 7Clement hit sacrifice fly to left, Barger scored.9–1
- 7Barger tripled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Bichette scored.8–1
- 7Guerrero Jr. singled to right, Lukes scored.6–1
- 6Loperfido homered to right center (394 feet).5–1
- 6Clement homered to left center (396 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Barger scored.4–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored.1–1
- 1Jones homered to left center (399 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 57%
- ML TOR +120 / DET -145
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.8 pts
- DET: Elo 50.8%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- DET -130
- TOR +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1522 | 1515 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | +5 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.57 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.27 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 51.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.110th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.74th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 32–185th of 30 |
| 19th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 8th of 301522 | Elo rating | 151512th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–42 | 50–53 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 34–35 |
| Underdog | 36–16 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 56–46 | 54–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 7–9 DET in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 16.