New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Max FriedPitching5.1 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching7.1 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Bichette homered to left (360 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored.4–8
- 6Straw scored on error, Wagner safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Rice.4–6
- 6Straw doubled to left, Clement scored.4–5
- 6Judge homered to right center (398 feet), Grisham scored.4–4
- 5Guerrero Jr. grounded into fielder's choice to pitcher, Schneider scored and Springer scored on throwing error by pitcher Fried.2–4
- 5Volpe homered to left center (384 feet).2–2
- 4Clement singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Barger to second, Kirk to third.1–2
- 4Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Springer scored.1–1
- 2Domínguez homered to right center (380 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 55%
- ML NYY -135 / TOR +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 52.5%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYY -124
- TOR +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1542 | 1519 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | −4 | NYY: Max Fried: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.20 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +17 Elo | NYY 52.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.69th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.317th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 36–172nd of 30 |
| 11th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149920th of 30 |
| 4th of 301542 | Elo rating | 151910th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–53 | 59–42 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–49 | 23–26 |
| Underdog | 9–4 | 35–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–56 | 55–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 17–18 TOR in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 35.