New York Yankees at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Yankees- Giancarlo StantonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 5Straw scored on error, Jiménez safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Volpe.1–4
- 5Straw reached on infield single to third, Bichette scored on throwing error by third baseman Peraza, Straw to second.1–3
- 5Bichette doubled to left, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.1–2
- 4Stanton homered to left (370 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 52%
- ML NYY -120 / TOR +100
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- NYY: Elo 50.6%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYY -109
- TOR +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYY 4.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYY | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1543 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +4 | NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.22 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +4 Elo | NYY 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 53.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 53.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYY | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.3 | Runs scored | 4.610th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.419th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 7th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 35–161st of 30 |
| 10th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 4th of 301543 | Elo rating | 151813th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYY |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–52 | 58–41 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 39–48 | 23–25 |
| Underdog | 8–4 | 34–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–54 | 55–44 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYY 16–17 TOR in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 33.