Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5
- Jose BerriosPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Tigers- Spencer TorkelsonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Torkelson homered to left center (373 feet).6–2
- 5Kirk singled to left, Bichette scored.6–1
- 5Bichette doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored and Springer scored.5–1
- 5Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Lukes scored, Springer to third.3–1
- 4Barger scored on error, Loperfido safe at first on throwing error by shortstop Báez.2–1
- 4Barger doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.1–1
- 2Dingler doubled to right, Pérez scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML TOR -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.0 pts
- DET: Elo 54.0%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +19 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.95 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +28 Elo | DET 54.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 52.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.112th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 14th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 32–197th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149429th of 30 |
| 8th of 301525 | Elo rating | 151215th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–42 | 50–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 34–36 |
| Underdog | 37–16 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–46 | 55–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 8–9 DET in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 17.