Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting5-5, 2 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 11 K
Tigers- Gleyber TorresBatting2-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger doubled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Bichette to third.4–10
- 9Bichette singled to right, Lukes scored and Springer scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.3–10
- 9Springer singled to left, Straw scored, Lukes to second.1–10
- 8Dingler singled to left, Greene scored, McKinstry scored on error and Torkelson scored, Dingler to second.0–10
- 8Torkelson singled to left, Vierling scored, Greene to second.0–7
- 8Greene singled to right, Torres scored, Vierling to third.0–6
- 8Torres singled to center, Báez scored.0–5
- 8Báez doubled to left, Meadows scored.0–4
- 3Torres homered to right center (403 feet), Dingler scored and Meadows scored.0–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- DET 51%
- ML TOR -105 / DET -115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 48%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- DET: Elo 46.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -104
- TOR +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.2 – 4.3 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1531 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −21 | TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.13 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 1.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.57th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 32–2110th of 30 |
| 15th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149528th of 30 |
| 6th of 301531 | Elo rating | 150716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–42 | 50–56 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 34–38 |
| Underdog | 39–16 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 58–47 | 56–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 10–9 DET in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 19.