Toronto Blue Jays at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting2-3
- Tarik SkubalPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Greene grounded out to second, Rogers scored.6–1
- 9Guerrero Jr. homered to left center (408 feet).6–0
- 9Springer homered to right center (390 feet).5–0
- 9Lukes homered to right center (387 feet), Clement scored.4–0
- 8Bichette singled to right, Loperfido scored and Springer scored, Bichette safe at second on throwing error by right fielder Pérez.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- DET 61%
- ML TOR +145 / DET -175
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.2 pts
- DET: Elo 50.8%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- DET -156
- TOR +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 2.8 – 3.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +13 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.67 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +5 Elo | DET 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 63.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.77th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 1–930th of 30 |
| 9th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 32–208th of 30 |
| 20th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 8th of 301528 | Elo rating | 151015th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–42 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 0–10 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 34–37 |
| Underdog | 38–16 | 16–18 |
| Overs–unders | 57–47 | 55–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 9–9 DET in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 18.