Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Orioles- Jordan WestburgBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Dean KremerPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Cowser walked, Henderson scored, O'Hearn to second, Rutschman to third.9–8
- 7Westburg scored on error, Rutschman safe at first on fielding error by first baseman Clement, Rutschman safe at second on error, Henderson safe at third on error.9–7
- 7Henderson singled to left, Holliday scored, Westburg to third.9–6
- 7Lukes homered to right (383 feet), Bichette scored and Barger scored.9–5
- 7Bichette singled to center, Loperfido scored and Clement scored.6–5
- 6Straw doubled to right, Schneider scored.4–5
- 5Westburg homered to left center (397 feet), Jackson scored.3–5
- 5Guerrero Jr. singled to left, Sánchez scored, Clement to third.3–3
- 2Straw homered to left center (381 feet), Barger scored.2–3
- 1O'Hearn homered to right (388 feet), Henderson scored.0–3
- 1Rutschman hit sacrifice fly to center, Holliday scored, Henderson to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Orioles 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- BAL 53%
- ML TOR +105 / BAL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- BAL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- BAL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- BAL: Elo 50.9%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- BAL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.6 – 4.9 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +11 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · BAL: Dean Kremer: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | BAL +6 Elo | BAL 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 50.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | BAL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–29 | Road vs home | 27–2621st of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 9th of 301519 | Elo rating | 149519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–46 | 53–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–27 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 33–26 |
| Overs–unders | 61–48 | 49–59 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–23 BAL in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 35.