Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors BAL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Tyler HeinemanBatting3-3
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Orioles- Adley RutschmanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Rutschman doubled to right, Henderson scored.2–3
- 4Urías grounded out to second, O'Hearn scored.2–2
- 4O'Hearn tripled to center, Laureano scored.2–1
- 4Straw grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Clement scored, Heineman out at second.2–0
- 2Lukes grounded out to third, Clement scored, Heineman to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML TOR -130 / BAL +110
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 56.0%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- BAL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.9 – 4.6 BAL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | BAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1520 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −24 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.53 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 1.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +42 Elo | TOR 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 51.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 4.415th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.626th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 26–2621st of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 149724th of 30 |
| 9th of 301520 | Elo rating | 149421st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–45 | 52–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 23–26 | 20–29 |
| Underdog | 39–19 | 32–26 |
| Overs–unders | 61–47 | 49–58 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 12–22 BAL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 20 of 34.