Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Jackson HollidayBatting1-3
- Trevor RogersPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Cubs- Carson KellyBatting2-3
- Cade HortonPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 2Happ hit sacrifice fly to right, Kelly scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 57%
- ML BAL +125 / CHC -150
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.0 pts
- CHC: Elo 58.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- CHC -135
- BAL +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.4 – 4.1 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +4 | BAL: Trevor Rogers: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +59 Elo | CHC 58.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.31st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.01st of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 23rd of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 33–173rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15029th of 30 |
| 20th of 301494 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 52–56 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 35–34 |
| Underdog | 33–26 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–59 | 60–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 1–5 CHC in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 6.