Cincinnati Reds at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Tyler StephensonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching2.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Cubs- Dansby SwansonBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ben BrownPitching4.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Friedl singled to center, Fraley scored, Hayes to second.3–2
- 6De La Cruz doubled to left, McLain scored, De La Cruz to third.2–2
- 3Swanson homered to left center (415 feet), Happ scored.1–2
- 2Stephenson homered to left (389 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 55%
- ML CIN +115 / CHC -135
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 51.1%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -124
- CIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.5 – 4.0 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1542 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −36 | CIN: Nick Lodolo: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Michael Soroka: team allows 1.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +7 Elo | CHC 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 57.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 56.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 304.6 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–28 | Road vs home | 35–183rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15423rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–53 | 53–58 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 36–36 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders | 45–67 | 61–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 17–15 CHC in their last 32 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 32.