Baltimore Orioles at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Orioles- Colton CowserBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Brandon YoungPitching4.2 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cubs- Justin TurnerBatting1-1, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Colin ReaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Turner homered to left center, Swanson scored.3–5
- 9Noda singled to right, Cowser scored.3–3
- 6Swanson singled to center, Castro scored, Hoerner to second.2–3
- 4Cowser singled to right, Rutschman scored.2–2
- 3Henderson grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, A. Jackson scored, Holliday out at second.1–2
- 1Happ doubled to right, Suzuki scored, Kelly thrown out at home.0–2
- 1Suzuki singled to right, Busch scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 62%
- ML BAL +155 / CHC -185
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CHC: Elo 59.1%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- CHC -166
- BAL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BAL 3.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BAL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1495 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −16 | −16 | BAL: Brandon Young: team allows 0.78 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · CHC: Colin Rea: team allows 0.79 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +64 Elo | CHC 59.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 60.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 59.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| BAL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.21st of 30 |
| 27th of 305.0 | Runs allowed | 4.213th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–514th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3024–33 | Road vs home | 34–183rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 150310th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Elo rating | 15413rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BAL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–56 | 52–58 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 20–30 | 35–36 |
| Underdog | 35–26 | 17–22 |
| Overs–unders | 50–61 | 60–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BAL 2–6 CHC in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.