San Francisco Giants at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Giants- Jerar EncarnacionBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Robbie RayPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Andrew HeaneyPitching4.2 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Bailey singled to right, Smith scored.4–2
- 9Smith doubled to right, Lee scored.3–2
- 8Chapman hit sacrifice fly to left, Bailey scored.2–2
- 5Pham hit sacrifice fly to right, Kiner-Falefa scored.1–2
- 5Encarnación homered to left center (442 feet).1–1
- 1N. Gonzales singled to left, Peguero scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Giants 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- SF 57%
- ML SF -150 / PIT +125
- Pre-line forecast
- SF 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SF 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- SF: Elo 56.2%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- SF -135
- PIT +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SF 4.1 – 3.4 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SF | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1471 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +11 | −23 | SF: Robbie Ray: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Andrew Heaney: team allows 1.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SF +43 Elo | SF 56.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SF 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SF 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SF 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| SF | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.17th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 22nd of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–34th of 30 |
| 12th of 3029–31 | Road vs home | 32–2617th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301498 | Elo rating | 147125th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SF |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–68 | 59–55 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 17–49 | 11–25 |
| Underdog | 29–19 | 48–30 |
| Overs–unders | 55–59 | 48–66 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SF 9–8 PIT in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 17.