Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Nick MartinezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-3
- Braxton AshcraftPitching3.1 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Friedl hit sacrifice fly to right, Marte scored.2–1
- 4Marte doubled to left, Steer scored.1–1
- 3Pham hit sacrifice fly to center, Triolo scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 51%
- ML CIN -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.8 pts
- CIN: Elo 52.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CIN -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −4 | CIN: Nick Martinez: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Braxton Ashcraft: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +20 Elo | CIN 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 51.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 14th of 3027–31 | Road vs home | 34–2717th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301505 | Elo rating | 147425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–56 | 61–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 46–71 | 49–68 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 14–20 PIT in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.