Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Gavin LuxBatting3-4
- Chase BurnsPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds tripled to right, Kiner-Falefa scored and Pham scored.2–3
- 6Stephenson doubled to right, Lux scored, Andujar to third.2–1
- 4Cruz doubled to left, Reynolds scored.1–1
- 2Fraley grounded into double play, second to shortstop to first, Lux scored, Stephenson out at second, Andujar to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Reds 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CIN 54%
- ML CIN -130 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- CIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.2 pts
- CIN: Elo 50.5%, market 53.7%
- Fair odds
- CIN -116
- PIT +116 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 3.9 – 3.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +1 | CIN: Chase Burns: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) · PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +4 Elo | CIN 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CIN 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CIN 53.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.5 | Runs scored | 3.630th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.424th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–30 | Road vs home | 33–2717th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15052nd of 30 |
| 15th of 301506 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–55 | 60–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 20–35 | 12–25 |
| Underdog | 40–20 | 48–31 |
| Overs–unders | 46–70 | 49–67 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 14–19 PIT in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 33.