Cincinnati Reds at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Noelvi MarteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching4.2 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Isiah Kiner-FalefaBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Mike BurrowsPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9McLain hit sacrifice fly to right, Trevino scored, Hayes to third.14–8
- 9Friedl walked, Steer scored, Hayes to second, Trevino to third.13–8
- 9Marte homered to center (427 feet), Andujar scored and Hays scored.12–8
- 8Suwinski lined out to second, Pham and Cruz scored on throwing error by second baseman McLain, N. Gonzales safe at second on error.9–8
- 8Cruz singled to right, Horwitz scored, Pham to second.9–6
- 8Steer homered to left center (439 feet), Marte scored.9–5
- 7McCutchen walked, N. Gonzales scored, Triolo to second, Suwinski to third.7–5
- 6Steer doubled to center, Andujar scored and Marte scored.7–4
- 6Marte hit a ground rule double, De La Cruz scored, Andujar to third.5–4
- 5Suwinski grounded out to second, Reynolds scored, N. Gonzales to third.4–4
- 4Horwitz singled to center, Kiner-Falefa scored.4–3
- 4Kiner-Falefa doubled to left, Triolo scored and Suwinski scored.4–2
- 3Andujar homered to left (384 feet), Lux scored and De La Cruz scored.4–0
- 3De La Cruz singled to right, Hayes scored, Lux to third.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 50%
- ML CIN -110 / PIT -110
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.2 pts
- PIT: Elo 45.8%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- PIT -100
- CIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.3 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −8 | CIN: Zack Littell: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Mike Burrows: team allows 0.39 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CIN +29 Elo | CIN 54.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CIN 50.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CIN | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 3.530th of 30 |
| 13th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.07th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 9th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–59th of 30 |
| 13th of 3028–31 | Road vs home | 34–2817th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15062nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301506 | Elo rating | 147325th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 62–56 | 61–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–36 | 12–26 |
| Underdog | 41–20 | 49–31 |
| Overs–unders | 46–72 | 49–69 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 15–20 PIT in their last 35 meetings; the forecast called 23 of 35.