New York Mets at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Cedric MullinsBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Brewers- William ContrerasBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Quinn PriesterPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Collins homered to right (363 feet).6–7
- 8Ortiz singled to right, Turang scored, Jansen to second.6–6
- 5Contreras homered to right (357 feet), Collins scored.6–5
- 5Alonso doubled to right, J. Soto scored.6–3
- 4Ortiz singled to left, Jansen scored and Monasterio scored, Lockridge to second.5–3
- 4Contreras homered to left (374 feet).5–1
- 4Mullins homered to left center (388 feet).5–0
- 3Mauricio singled to right, Alonso scored, Mauricio thrown out at second.4–0
- 2Baty homered to left center (412 feet).3–0
- 1McNeil singled to right, J. Soto scored.2–0
- 1J. Soto singled to center, Lindor scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 51%
- ML NYM -105 / MIL -115
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +11.1 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.2%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- MIL -104
- NYM +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.2 – 4.3 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1515 | 1568 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Quinn Priester: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +86 Elo | MIL 62.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 53.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| NYM | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 5.05th of 30 |
| 9th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +1.11st of 30 |
| 30th of 301–9 | Last 10 | 9–11st of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 38–202nd of 30 |
| 24th of 301496 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 11th of 301515 | Elo rating | 15681st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–64 | 67–49 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 31–51 | 31–31 |
| Underdog | 22–13 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 51–66 | 54–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 6–15 MIL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 21.
- Aug 9NYM 4 @ MIL 7Picked MIL 52%Hit
- Aug 8NYM 2 @ MIL 3Picked MIL 57%Hit
- Jul 3MIL 2 @ NYM 3Picked NYM 59%Hit
- Jul 2MIL 3 @ NYM 7Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jul 2MIL 7 @ NYM 2Picked NYM 52%Miss
- Oct 3NYM 4 @ MIL 2PlayoffsPicked MIL 53%Miss
- Oct 2NYM 3 @ MIL 5PlayoffsPicked MIL 54%Hit
- Oct 1NYM 8 @ MIL 4PlayoffsPicked MIL 57%Miss