Pittsburgh Pirates at Milwaukee Brewers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Spencer HorwitzBatting1-4
- Paul SkenesPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Brewers- Christian YelichBatting3-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 8Durbin homered to center (389 feet), Jansen scored.0–14
- 6Vaughn homered to left (441 feet), Contreras scored and Yelich scored.0–12
- 6Yelich singled to center, Frelick scored, Contreras to third.0–9
- 6Contreras singled to left, Ortiz scored, Frelick to second.0–8
- 6Collins hit sacrifice fly to right, Perkins scored, Ortiz to third.0–7
- 5Yelich homered to left center (408 feet), Contreras scored.0–6
- 4Frelick singled to right, Ortiz scored.0–4
- 4Turang homered to center (437 feet).0–3
- 3Contreras doubled to center, Frelick scored.0–2
- 1Frelick homered to right (375 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Brewers 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIL 57%
- ML PIT +120 / MIL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL 63%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.4 pts
- MIL: Elo 62.9%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- MIL -130
- PIT +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.0 – 3.5 MIL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1468 | 1570 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +24 | −4 | PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 1.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +92 Elo | MIL 62.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 56.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| PIT | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 5.04th of 30 |
| 8th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.94th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | +1.21st of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 10–01st of 30 |
| 29th of 3017–40 | Road vs home | 40–202nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 301507 | Opponent Elo | 149529th of 30 |
| 25th of 301468 | Elo rating | 15701st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 61–59 | 68–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 32–32 |
| Underdog | 49–32 | 36–18 |
| Overs–unders | 50–70 | 55–63 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 14–20 MIL in their last 34 meetings; the forecast called 22 of 34.