Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Jake BurgerBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- Patrick CorbinPitching2.1 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Myles StrawBatting4-5, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burger singled to center, Langford scored.2–14
- 7Schneider homered to left (375 feet), Lukes scored and Springer scored.1–14
- 5Schneider walked, Straw scored, Springer to second, Giménez to third.1–11
- 5Varsho homered to right (365 feet), Kirk scored.1–10
- 3Straw homered to left (391 feet), Varsho scored.1–8
- 3Burger singled to right, Haggerty scored.1–6
- 2Bichette doubled to center, Giménez scored and Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. thrown out at home.0–6
- 2Straw homered to left center (376 feet), Varsho scored and Clement scored.0–4
- 2Clement doubled to left, Bichette scored, Varsho to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML TEX +145 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.9%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -156
- TEX +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +15 | TEX: Patrick Corbin: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +56 Elo | TOR 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 1st of 303.6 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 8th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 24th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 25th of 3024–36 | Road vs home | 41–202nd of 30 |
| 22nd of 301497 | Opponent Elo | 150015th of 30 |
| 15th of 301507 | Elo rating | 15229th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 63–60 | 70–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 29–37 | 28–32 |
| Underdog | 34–23 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 53–70 | 70–53 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 9–8 TOR in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.