Chicago Cubs at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cade HortonPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Suzuki singled to center, McGuire scored.4–1
- 8Busch hit sacrifice fly to center, Shaw scored, McGuire to second.3–1
- 6Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Giménez scored, Bichette to third.2–1
- 5Shaw homered to left (358 feet).2–0
- 3Busch homered to right (356 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 54%
- ML CHC +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- CHC +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1537 | 1522 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +15 | +9 | CHC: Cade Horton: team allows 0.77 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +3 Elo | CHC 50.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 54.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | +0.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–47th of 30 |
| 5th of 3031–29 | Road vs home | 39–192nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149917th of 30 |
| 5th of 301537 | Elo rating | 152210th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–63 | 70–50 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–40 | 28–29 |
| Underdog | 17–23 | 41–21 |
| Overs–unders | 62–56 | 69–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 4–3 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.