Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Davis SchneiderBatting3-7, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Kyle FreelandPitching4.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement homered to left (409 feet).20–1
- 9Schneider homered to center (454 feet), Heineman scored and Straw scored.19–1
- 9Lukes hit sacrifice fly to left, France scored.16–1
- 9Barger hit sacrifice fly to center, Bichette scored, France to third.15–1
- 9Bichette doubled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored.14–1
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to left, Clement scored.13–1
- 8Lukes grounded out to pitcher, France scored, Barger to second.12–1
- 8Guerrero Jr. homered to right center (408 feet).11–1
- 6Barger singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored and France scored.10–1
- 6France doubled to center, Clement scored, Guerrero Jr. to third.8–1
- 6Schneider homered to left (384 feet).7–1
- 5Heineman singled to center, Lukes scored.6–1
- 5Lukes tripled to left, France scored and Kennedy scored.5–1
- 3Bichette homered to right center (405 feet), Clement scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.3–1
- 1Tovar doubled to left, Freeman scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 70%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.6% of 209 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 70%
- ML TOR -270 / COL +220
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- TOR: Elo 67.5%, market 70.0%
- Fair odds
- TOR -234
- COL +234 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 6.7 – 4.8 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1521 | 1384 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | −4 | TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Kyle Freeland: team allows 0.18 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +127 Elo | TOR 67.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 66.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 67.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 70.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.430th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 3–724th of 30 |
| 9th of 3029–29 | Road vs home | 16–4130th of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 9th of 301521 | Elo rating | 138430th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 67–48 | 55–58 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 26–29 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–54 |
| Overs–unders | 66–49 | 51–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 6–2 COL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.