Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Bobby Witt Jr.Batting1-3, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Michael WachaPitching8.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Blue Jays- Addison BargerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Barger homered to right (362 feet), Loperfido scored.9–3
- 9Garcia singled to left, Isbel scored, Pasquantino to second, Witt Jr. to third.9–1
- 9Frazier homered to right (381 feet), Grichuk scored.8–1
- 9Perez homered to left (362 feet).6–1
- 3Witt Jr. homered to left (417 feet), Isbel scored and India scored.5–1
- 2Yastrzemski homered to right center (370 feet), Garcia scored.2–1
- 1Guerrero Jr. homered to left (428 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 59%
- ML KC +135 / TOR -160
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 57.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -145
- KC +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.3 – 4.2 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1520 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | +11 | KC: Michael Wacha: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.54 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +50 Elo | TOR 57.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 60.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 60.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.2 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 10th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 37–172nd of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 15209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 53–56 | 64–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 23–27 |
| Underdog | 38–23 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 45–64 | 62–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 6–8 TOR in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 14.