Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Jose BerriosPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Rockies- Hunter GoodmanBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Anthony MolinaPitching5.0 IP, 7 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Varsho doubled to right, Bichette scored and Guerrero Jr. scored.10–4
- 9Guerrero Jr. doubled to right, Lukes scored, Bichette to third.8–4
- 6Bernabel singled to right, Beck scored, Moniak to third.7–4
- 6Moniak singled to center, Goodman scored, Beck to second, Moniak to second, Beck safe at third on fielding error by center fielder Varsho.7–3
- 6Varsho homered to right (467 feet), Kirk scored.7–2
- 6Barger homered to right (383 feet).5–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to right (398 feet).4–2
- 4Varsho homered to right (404 feet), Kirk scored.3–2
- 3Lukes homered to right center (399 feet).1–2
- 1Goodman homered to left (379 feet), Tovar scored.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 67%
- ML TOR -235 / COL +195
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.1 pts
- TOR: Elo 62.3%, market 67.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -207
- COL +207 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 6.5 – 5.0 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 11.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1519 | 1386 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −5 | +22 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · COL: Anthony Molina (no track record yet) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +87 Elo | TOR 62.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 61.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 67.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 3.728th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −2.630th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 4–619th of 30 |
| 10th of 3028–29 | Road vs home | 16–4030th of 30 |
| 18th of 301499 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 10th of 301519 | Elo rating | 138630th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 66–48 | 55–57 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 25–29 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–53 |
| Overs–unders | 65–49 | 50–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–2 COL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.