Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Salvador PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Noah CameronPitching6.1 IP, 4 ER, 1 K
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-4, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 7Clement singled to left, Loperfido scored, Lukes to second.2–4
- 7Isbel hit sacrifice bunt to pitcher, Frazier scored.2–3
- 6Perez homered to left (387 feet).1–3
- 3Bichette singled to right, Schneider scored, Guerrero Jr. to second.0–3
- 3Schneider singled to right, Straw scored on error and Heineman scored on error, Schneider safe at second on fielding error by right fielder Rave.0–2
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML KC +120 / TOR -145
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.3%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- TOR -130
- KC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 4.0 – 4.5 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1502 | 1517 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −10 | KC: Noah Cameron: team allows 0.32 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · TOR: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.51 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +16 Elo | TOR 52.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.7 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 8th of 3027–27 | Road vs home | 37–182nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 16th of 301502 | Elo rating | 151712th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 64–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 23–28 |
| Underdog | 39–23 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–64 | 63–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–8 TOR in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 15.