Toronto Blue Jays at Colorado Rockies, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors COL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Bo BichetteBatting3-6, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Eric LauerPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Rockies- Ezequiel TovarBatting2-3, 1 RBI
- Ryan RolisonPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9Clement hit a ground rule double, France scored, Straw to third.15–1
- 7Varsho singled to center, Barger scored, Kirk to second.14–1
- 7Bichette homered to center (434 feet), Loperfido scored and Lukes scored.13–1
- 7Lukes singled to center, Clement scored, Loperfido to third.10–1
- 5Tovar singled to left, Freeman scored.9–1
- 3Bichette homered to left (413 feet), Lukes scored.9–0
- 3Schneider doubled to left, Loperfido scored, Schneider out stretching at third.7–0
- 3Loperfido singled to center, Clement scored.6–0
- 3Varsho homered to right center (451 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Barger scored.5–0
- 2Schneider singled to left, Clement scored.2–0
- 1Bichette singled to right, Lukes scored.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 65%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 69.7% of 518 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 65%
- ML TOR -210 / COL +175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.6 pts
- TOR: Elo 65.7%, market 65.1%
- Fair odds
- TOR -186
- COL +186 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 6.9 – 5.6 COL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 12.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | COL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1389 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +8 | TOR: Eric Lauer: team allows 0.58 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · COL: Tanner Gordon: team allows 0.41 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +113 Elo | TOR 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 62.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 63.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 65.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| TOR | Stat | COL |
|---|---|---|
| 9th of 304.7 | Runs scored | 3.828th of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 6.330th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −2.530th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 11th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 16–3930th of 30 |
| 14th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15071st of 30 |
| 12th of 301516 | Elo rating | 138930th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  COL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 65–48 | 55–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 24–29 | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 40–19 | 53–52 |
| Overs–unders | 64–49 | 49–62 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–2 COL in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 6.