Kansas City Royals at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Royals- Tyler TolbertBatting1-1, 2 RBI
- Seth LugoPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- Joey LoperfidoBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 10Barger singled to center, Lukes scored, Bichette to third.7–4
- 10Lukes singled to center, Straw scored.7–3
- 10Garcia hit sacrifice fly to left, Tolbert scored.7–2
- 10Witt Jr. scored on pickoff error by catcher Kirk, Tolbert stole second and advanced to third on error.7–2
- 10Witt Jr. scored on pickoff error by catcher Kirk, Tolbert stole third.7–2
- 10Witt Jr. scored on pickoff error by catcher Kirk, Tolbert stole third.6–2
- 10Tolbert singled to right, India scored and Isbel scored, Witt Jr. to third.5–2
- 10Isbel doubled to right, Grichuk scored.3–2
- 8Pasquantino singled to center, Witt Jr. scored.2–2
- 5Loperfido singled to center, Clement scored, Loperfido to second.1–2
- 4Yastrzemski hit sacrifice fly to left, Pasquantino scored.1–1
- 2Straw singled to left, Bichette scored, Clement to second, Varsho thrown out at home.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 57%
- ML KC +125 / TOR -150
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- TOR: Elo 53.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- TOR -135
- KC +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- KC 3.9 – 4.6 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | KC | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1518 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −12 | KC: Seth Lugo: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +24 Elo | TOR 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 56.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| KC | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 303.6 | Runs scored | 4.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.215th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–516th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–28 | Road vs home | 38–182nd of 30 |
| 13th of 301501 | Opponent Elo | 150112th of 30 |
| 17th of 301501 | Elo rating | 151811th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  KC |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–57 | 65–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 15–33 | 24–28 |
| Underdog | 39–24 | 40–19 |
| Overs–unders | 46–65 | 63–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
KC 7–9 TOR in their last 16 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 16.