Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Ian HappBatting2-4
- Matthew BoydPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Jordan WalkerBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Michael McGreevyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Pagés singled to right, Saggese scored.0–5
- 6Walker homered to left center (434 feet).0–4
- 5Contreras singled to left, Hampson scored, Contreras thrown out at second.0–3
- 5Herrera hit sacrifice fly to center, Pagés scored.0–2
- 2Walker reached on infield single to shortstop, Burleson scored, Winn to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 60%
- ML CHC -165 / STL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.9 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHC -149
- STL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.7 – 3.8 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1541 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | CHC: Matthew Boyd: team allows 0.51 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Michael McGreevy: team allows 0.28 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +49 Elo | CHC 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 63.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 62.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.2 | Runs scored | 4.414th of 30 |
| 11th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 4.523rd of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+1.0 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–618th of 30 |
| 2nd of 3030–26 | Road vs home | 32–2414th of 30 |
| 10th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15053rd of 30 |
| 4th of 301541 | Elo rating | 148922nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–60 | 57–59 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 37–38 | 22–36 |
| Underdog | 17–22 | 35–23 |
| Overs–unders | 61–53 | 61–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 18–15 STL in their last 33 meetings; the forecast called 17 of 33.