St. Louis Cardinals at Los Angeles Dodgers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan GormanBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 1 K
Dodgers- Max MuncyBatting4-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Emmet SheehanPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson hit sacrifice fly to left, Saggese scored.6–12
- 9Pozo scored, Herrera to second, Saggese to third on wild pitch by Banda.5–12
- 9Pozo scored on Banda wild pitch, Herrera to second on wild pitch by Banda, Saggese to third on wild pitch by Banda.5–12
- 8Conforto singled to center, Betts scored, Muncy to third.4–12
- 8Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.4–11
- 8Contreras homered to center (410 feet).4–10
- 7Freeland singled to right, Pages scored.3–10
- 7T. Hernández homered to center (429 feet), Betts scored and Muncy scored.3–9
- 7Muncy singled to right, Ohtani scored, Betts to second.3–6
- 7Herrera singled to right, Gorman scored, Donovan to second.3–5
- 3T. Hernández homered to left (378 feet).2–5
- 3Muncy homered to right center (404 feet), Betts scored.2–4
- 2Gorman homered to right center (425 feet), Contreras scored.2–2
- 1Muncy homered to right center (416 feet).0–2
- 1Freeman hit sacrifice fly to center, Ohtani scored.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Dodgers 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- LAD 62%
- ML STL +150 / LAD -180
- Pre-line forecast
- LAD 63%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- LAD: Elo 60.1%, market 61.6%
- Fair odds
- LAD -161
- STL +161 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 5.3 LAD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | LAD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1548 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | −2 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.21 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAD: Emmet Sheehan: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | LAD +71 Elo | LAD 60.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAD 63.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAD 62.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAD 61.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 5.13rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.67th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3025–33 | Road vs home | 35–2210th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301504 | Opponent Elo | 149823rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Elo rating | 15482nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–58 | 48–65 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 36–57 |
| Underdog | 34–22 | 12–8 |
| Overs–unders | 60–54 | 58–55 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 1–9 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–10 LAD in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 18.