St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors SD.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Matthew LiberatorePitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 1 K
Padres- Jackson MerrillBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Nick PivettaPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 5Merrill singled to center, Díaz scored and Tatis Jr. scored, Arraez to second.1–4
- 5Díaz singled to left, Iglesias scored.1–2
- 5Cronenworth scored on throwing error by first baseman Contreras, Iglesias safe at first on throwing error by third baseman Gorman, Iglesias safe at second on error.1–1
- 5Contreras homered to left center (398 feet).1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Padres 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- SD 63%
- ML STL +160 / SD -190
- Pre-line forecast
- SD 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SD 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- SD: Elo 59.8%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- SD -170
- STL +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.3 SD
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | SD | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1489 | 1529 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +13 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.07 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · SD: Nick Pivetta: team allows 0.63 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | SD +69 Elo | SD 59.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SD 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SD 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SD 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| STL | Stat | SD |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.83rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30−0.1 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 22nd of 3023–31 | Road vs home | 34–184th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 149919th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301489 | Elo rating | 15296th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  SD |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–56 | 61–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 22–36 | 24–32 |
| Underdog | 32–20 | 37–16 |
| Overs–unders | 58–52 | 45–64 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–8 SD in their last 17 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 17.