Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Jesus SanchezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Cal QuantrillPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting1-3
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 3J. Sánchez homered to center (439 feet), Edwards scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 55%
- ML MIA +115 / STL -135
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- STL: Elo 53.4%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -124
- MIA +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +1 | MIA: Cal Quantrill: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +24 Elo | STL 53.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 54.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.521st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.117th of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 7th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 32–2313th of 30 |
| 9th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15037th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 149122nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 60–46 | 54–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 58–30 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–57 | 58–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–8 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 7–8 STL in their last 15 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 15.