Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Heriberto HernandezBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Edward CabreraPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Andre PallantePitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Hernández singled to right, J. Sánchez scored.1–7
- 7Walker doubled to center, Winn scored.0–7
- 7Winn doubled to left, Burleson scored on error, Donovan scored and Hampson scored, Winn safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Hernández.0–6
- 7Burleson reached first base on catcher's interference, Scott II scored, Hampson to second, Donovan to third.0–3
- 4Pozo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez.0–2
- 4Pozo scored on throwing error by catcher Ramírez.0–2
- 3Burleson homered to center (411 feet).0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML MIA +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- STL: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- MIA +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1479 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −2 | MIA: Edward Cabrera: team allows 0.14 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.08 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +27 Elo | STL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.413th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.118th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 31–2212th of 30 |
| 7th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 24th of 301479 | Elo rating | 149121st of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–45 | 53–54 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 57–29 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–55 | 58–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–7 STL in their last 13 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 13.