Miami Marlins at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Marlins- Graham PauleyBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Sandy AlcantaraPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-4
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Edwards tripled to right, Wagaman scored.5–0
- 6Wagaman doubled to right, Myers scored.4–0
- 5Lopez singled to right, Stowers scored.3–0
- 2Pauley homered to right (384 feet), Johnston scored.2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 58%
- ML MIA +130 / STL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.3 pts
- STL: Elo 57.0%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -140
- MIA +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 3.4 – 4.1 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −13 | 0 | MIA: Sandy Alcantara: team allows 0.66 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.01 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +49 Elo | STL 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 61.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest.
| MIA | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.513th of 30 |
| 24th of 304.8 | Runs allowed | 4.522nd of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.5 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 8th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 32–2211th of 30 |
| 8th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 15044th of 30 |
| 24th of 301476 | Elo rating | 149422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 59–46 | 54–54 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 2–16 | 22–34 |
| Underdog | 57–30 | 32–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–56 | 58–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 6–8 STL in their last 14 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 14.